Is Tulum Ready for 700K Residents?
TULUM, Mexico — Amid significant infrastructure developments, Tulum and its neighboring municipality, Felipe Carrillo Puerto, are poised for a transformative surge in population and urban expansion, driven by major projects such as the Tren Maya, the new Felipe Carrillo Puerto International Airport, and the Jaguar Park. According to a detailed analysis by the Ministry of Agrarian, Urban, and Territorial Development (SEDATU), these initiatives could catalyze a 447 percent increase in population by 2050 in these areas.
The expected population boom from 130,000 to 716,161 residents will bring many sustainability challenges and environmental impacts. Foremost among these is water management: demand for potable water is projected to increase by 116 percent. This surge will strain the region’s aquifers, which are already delicately balanced systems of cenotes and underground rivers. To meet this demand, 41.6 hectometres of water will be required annually by mid-century, alongside a significant increase in wastewater production to 20.8 hectometres.
Governor Mara Lezama emphasizes the necessity of sustainable development in the face of these challenges. “We must ensure our growth is sustainable; without environmental stewardship, our natural beauty, the main draw for many who visit and move to Quintana Roo, would suffer,” Lezama told financial news outlet El Financiero.
SEDATU’s report outlines three scenarios for the region’s development, reflecting varying levels of government and financial capability to manage the impacts of the projects. The ‘ideal scenario’ paints an optimistic picture where infrastructure developments proceed without delays and incorporate sustainable practices such as enhanced water sanitation and recycling, pushing the daily water allocation per inhabitant to 159 liters — 50 percent above the United Nations’ basic need threshold.
However, environmentalists like Elías Sienenborn voice concerns about the current development trajectory. Sienenborn has documented pollution in cenotes in the area affected by Tren Maya and argues that the rapid real estate speculation and construction are occurring without adequate regulatory oversight, leading to dispossession and environmental degradation.
“These projects are proceeding cynically, with the government allowing continued environmental damage without sufficient checks. No one is addressing the visible deterioration and contamination,” Sienenborn stated.
The report also considers less optimistic scenarios where infrastructure projects experience delays, leading to more gradual population growth and urban sprawl. The ‘tendential scenario’ predicts a doubling population over the next 25 years, necessitating 13,310 additional hectares for urban use by 2050. This scenario would likely exacerbate urban problems such as lengthy commutes, difficulty in service provision, and lack of access to quality public spaces.
Conversely, the ‘strategic scenario’ assumes a faster consolidation of tourism projects, resulting in an additional 220,000 people by 2050 and requiring over 100,000 new private homes.
These projections underscore the critical need for strategic planning and environmental conservation to manage Tulum’s impending growth. If handled correctly, the area’s development could serve as a model of sustainable urban expansion, preserving the natural allure that makes Tulum a unique destination while accommodating its rising popularity.
