TULUM – México, October 2, 2024 — In a historic turn of events, Claudia Sheinbaum was sworn in on Tuesday, becoming the first woman and the first Jewish individual to assume Mexico’s presidency in more than 200 years of independence. The significance of this moment was felt across the country as Sheinbaum addressed thousands of supporters in Mexico City’s Zócalo, the nation’s symbolic heart.
“For the first time, women have arrived to guide the destiny of our beautiful nation,” Sheinbaum declared during her inauguration ceremony. “And I say ‘arrived’ because I do not arrive alone—we all have arrived.”
This victory is not only personal but represents a profound shift in Mexico’s political and social landscape. The capital’s streets were packed with people eager to witness this momentous occasion, many women inspired by Sheinbaum’s historic achievement. Among them was Licet Reséndiz Oropeza, who traveled over 50 hours from Tijuana to be present in the capital.
“This is something historic,” said Reséndiz Oropeza, overwhelmed with emotion. “It’s a joy that I can’t even begin to describe.”
Sheinbaum, a scientist by training and former mayor of Mexico City, won the June election by the most significant margin since Mexico’s transition to democracy in the 2000s. Her landslide victory grants her a solid mandate to pursue the continuation of the social policies initiated by her predecessor and mentor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador. Yet, her presidency will be shaped by opportunities and obstacles as she inherits a nation grappling with economic, security, and political challenges.
Political Legacy and New Challenges
Sheinbaum’s rise to power is deeply entwined with that of López Obrador, who governed Mexico from 2018 to 2024. His six-year tenure was marked by a radical realignment of Mexican politics, with his Morena party securing control over most state legislatures, governorships, and the federal Congress. This almost hegemonic dominance, however, is also a source of tension within Morena as internal factions vie for power.
Political analyst Fernanda Caso pointed out the complexities of Sheinbaum’s situation: “She no longer has the same control over the party that López Obrador had. She will likely face constant internal struggles for power.” Caso added that while Sheinbaum might unify Morena, she must navigate these internal conflicts carefully to maintain stability.
López Obrador’s influence still looms large over the new administration. His allies fill key posts in Sheinbaum’s cabinet, and his son, Andy López Beltrán, was recently named to one of the party’s most powerful positions. However, Sheinbaum has continuously stated that her alignment with López Obrador’s policies stems from her convictions, not any perceived obligation or control by the former president.
“Being ideologically aligned with López Obrador doesn’t mean he’ll control her,” said political analyst Viri Ríos. “Her leadership might be quieter than we’re used to in Mexican politics, but it is there.”
Economic and Security Challenges
Sheinbaum faces a daunting array of problems as she steps into office. Chief among them is Mexico’s most significant budget deficit in 24 years, amounting to 6% of the nation’s GDP. Pemex, the state-owned oil company, is the world’s most indebted oil company, requiring billions in government bailouts to stay afloat. In light of these challenges, fulfilling her campaign promises will be difficult, especially regarding her social programs and infrastructure development plans.
In the security realm, Sheinbaum inherits a country still grappling with violence fueled by powerful drug cartels. While the homicide rate slightly decreased under López Obrador’s administration, reports of extortion and disappearances surged. The ongoing violence between factions of the Sinaloa Cartel, particularly in northern cities like Culiacán, continues to paralyze entire regions. Despite modest reductions in murders, the overall security crisis remains one of the most pressing issues for the new president.
Sheinbaum’s approach to security appears multifaceted. She plans to maintain the military’s expanded role, a hallmark of López Obrador’s strategy. Simultaneously, she aims to create a new intelligence agency capable of investigating criminal cases—an extension of the approach she applied as mayor of Mexico City, where she invested heavily in policing and intelligence capabilities.
Complex Political Environment
In the final months of his presidency, López Obrador pushed through significant constitutional changes, some of which Sheinbaum will have to contend with during her tenure. One particularly controversial reform mandates that, beginning next year, thousands of judges will be elected by popular vote. Critics argue this could undermine judicial independence, a cornerstone of any democratic system. Sheinbaum has supported some of these reforms but must carefully balance their implementation to avoid further fracturing Mexico’s already strained political institutions.
Morena, the political movement that swept Sheinbaum to victory, has become an amalgamation of differing factions, many with their visions for Mexico’s future. Managing this growing internal division will be another key test for Sheinbaum, primarily as she seeks to balance the party’s populist leanings with her technocratic, results-driven approach to governance.
Sheinbaum’s Vision: Social Programs and Renewable Energy
In addition to navigating political and economic hurdles, Sheinbaum has laid out an ambitious domestic agenda. One of her top priorities is to expand social welfare programs initiated under López Obrador. She has already announced that the pension age for women will be lowered to 60 and that all school-aged children will receive scholarships to continue their education, broadening an existing social program.
Her administration also plans to tackle Mexico’s energy future by increasing investments in renewable energy infrastructure and promoting clean technology. While López Obrador was known for emphasizing fossil fuel industries, mainly through investments in Pemex, Sheinbaum intends to pursue a more balanced approach. However, her plan also includes supporting Pemex’s recovery and ensuring the completion of a controversial $16 billion oil refinery project, which is still not fully operational.
Mexico’s International Relations: A U.S. Test Looms
On the international stage, Sheinbaum’s leadership will likely face its first major test in dealing with the United States, Mexico’s most important trade partner. Relations between the two countries may shift depending on the outcome of the upcoming U.S. presidential elections.
If Vice President Kamala Harris wins, Mexico can expect a continuation of the Biden administration’s cooperative but occasionally strained relationship with Mexico. The two countries have worked closely on issues ranging from immigration enforcement to combating drug trafficking, though Sheinbaum’s government could bring a fresh dynamic to these bilateral efforts.
However, a victory for Donald Trump could significantly disrupt Mexico’s foreign relations. Trump has already threatened to impose tariffs on Mexico and suggested military action against Mexican drug cartels, a move that would severely strain diplomatic ties. Despite the uncertainty, Sheinbaum and her team have publicly stated that they are prepared to work with whichever administration emerges victorious in the U.S. elections.
A New Chapter for Women in Mexican Politics
Sheinbaum’s presidency is undeniably a historic moment for women in Mexico. Her victory represents a shift in a country where men have long dominated politics. However, her record on gender issues as mayor of Mexico City offers a more complex perspective.
As mayor, Sheinbaum supported the establishment of a special prosecutor’s office to investigate femicides, contributing to a 34% reduction in violent deaths of women. However, she also faced significant criticism for her handling of protests against gender violence, particularly when she dismissed feminist demonstrations as “provocations” and authorized the use of force against protesters following allegations of police officers raping a minor. Amnesty International later condemned these actions, highlighting the challenges Sheinbaum will face in aligning her policies with the expectations of feminist movements.
Nonetheless, for many Mexicans, the symbolism of a female president is transformative. Sheinbaum’s rise signals that the political landscape is changing, and her success or failure will likely have profound implications for future generations of women leaders in the country.
